Reflecting upon the upcoming Israeli general election, one can\’t help but consider BGW (Before the Gaza War) and AGW (After the Gaza War). I am not suggesting, as others have conjectured, that the timing of the war had anything to do with the elections. There were several other factors that led to the war, but that is not the topic of this column. There is no question in my mind that the war has impacted the election campaign and will affect the government coalition ultimately formed.
Unlike the marathon United States election campaign, the lead up to February 10 vote in Israel was scheduled to be short from the outset. Once all the parties completed their internal primaries there were only 8-9 weeks left before the elections. The last public opinion polls in late December “BGW” were showing the Likud holding, on average, a 32 to 27 Knesset mandate lead over Kadima with the Labor Party and the right wing Yisrael Beiteinu each hovering around the 11-12 level. To round out the picture, the right wing-orthodox block was averaging 63 mandates while the center-left parties were polling 57 seats.
On the left side of the spectrum, Labor was so concerned about the image of their leader, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, that they launched an inventive campaign in which they ran a series of anonymous billboards and Internet ads calling Barak “not nice, not likeable, not trendy” which created a buzz around the source of these negative ads. Soon after, Labor added the phrase “he’s a leader” to the original line, reminding voters that they are electing a prime minister, not voting in a popularity contest. In parallel, Labor was considering how to properly position the rest of their impressive leadership team, rich in experience in dealing with economic, educational and social issues, including MKs Yitzhak Herzog, Ophir Pines-Paz, Yuli Tamir, Shellie Yechimovich and Avishai Braverman. (If you would like to see the Labor candidate list, reply to this email and type “Labor List.”) In parallel, Meretz was working to present themselves as the true left alternative to Kadima and the Likud, combining forces with a loose group of intellectuals and public figures calling themselves the New Movement. A member of the group, author Amos Oz, went as far as to tell the Ha’aretz newspaper that “the Labor Party has finished its historic role” and that “the expanded leftist movement will become a replacement for the Labor Party.” Indeed November polls taken before the Labor primary showed Meretz-New Movement receiving more Knesset seats than Labor.
On the right wing, the early campaign was dominated by the Likud’s primary and party leader Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s efforts to bring more moderate voices into top positions on the Knesset list. The move ultimately failed and his moderate recruits did not do well among the Likud electorate, leaving the Likud list with a more right-wing tilt than even Bibi wanted. There was also some jockeying to the right of the Likud, now occupied by Yisrael Beiteinu, the National Union and the new religious party, Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home).
When the war broke out, all major parties suspended their campaigns and by the time the ceasefire was announced and the troops were withdrawn from Gaza, there was essentially a three week campaign. The most recent “AGW” polls show a slight trend to the right and with both Barak’s Labor Party and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu strengthened to the 16 mandate level. Labor’s improvement can be credited to the general appreciation for the leadership Barak exhibited as Defense Minister while Lieberman’s increased popularity is due to his incendiary comments he has made about Gaza, Obama, Israeli Arabs and just about every topic. Meanwhile, Meretz- New Movement has faded to six seats, only one more than their status in the current Knesset.
Kadima’s leader, Tzipi Livni appears to be the big AGW loser thus far, with her “clean politician” image taking a back seat to the public’s attraction to Bibi’s saber rattling. Polls that reflect a lack of confidence with the current ceasefire and a belief that Israel will need to re-enter Gaza seem to support this analysis.
While there are 34 different parties competing for the 120 Knesset seats, currently none of the smaller lists seem to be catching the public’s imagination. One must remember, however, that in the last election, Gil, the Retirees Party, received seven seats after barely registering a blip in the polls. The best bet this cycle for a new Knesset faction would seem to be an environmental party but unfortunately the main players could not reach a merger agreement so there are two such parties, The Greens and Green Movement- Meimad, splitting the vote.
Newly elected President Obama casts a shadow over the elections without saying a word about the vote. He sent his new Middle East envoy, former senator George Mitchell, on a trip to the region and right wing parties are criticizing him for trying to influence the election. Both Barak and Livni have featured campaign pictures of themselves with Obama. Editorial writers in several papers have speculated on how the Obama administration will react to a Likud victory.
An important disclaimer to make at this point is that there appears to be an unusually large percentage of undecided voters this close to election day. Most polls have the number in the 25-30% range but one published yesterday had an astounding 47% of potential voters undecided. However you look at it, these levels put the election in play and the next two weeks of campaigning and external events will determine the results.
Once the votes are in, the traditional coalition building process begins. If Kadima makes a comeback and ends up with the most Knesset seats, the direction seems clear. For starters, they will likely invite left-of-center partners and orthodox parties to join a coalition to avoid including the Likud. If the current polls are accurate and Likud triumphs, the conventional wisdom “AGW” is that he will initially bypass Kadima and invite Barak to continue as a popular Defense Minister and Labor to join his coalition. “BGW”, a leading Labor MK told a gathering of party activists that Labor “will not, under any circumstances, join a Likud government.” He said that if Likud wins the election, Labor will rebuild itself in the opposition. The question is whether that categorical statement will hold in the “AGW” era. Recently a right wing group asked Knesset candidates from a variety of parties to sign oath saying they oppose a Palestinian state. Bibi (along with ¾ of the Likud list) refused to sign……is he positioning himself for a government coalition that doesn’t rule out such an eventuality? I will be in Israel immediately after the elections and will share my observations with you.
If you are a political junkie like me and you want to see where you stand within the Israel political spectrum, click here to take a multiple choice survey sponsored by the 2009 Israel Election Compass. http://israel.kieskompas.nl/
