It seems that Israel is always either in the midst of coalition negotiations or preparing for the next round of general elections. The last election took place less than 10 months ago and already the country is abuzz with polls and leadership battles. Last week Ha’aretz reported that if elections were held today the Likud would more than double their current size and lead with 29 seats followed by Labor, losing one seat to 18. Yisrael Beiteinu would slightly increase to 14 and Kadima would appear to be a “one hit wonder,’ dropping to 12 from their current 29. This would likely result in Bibi Netanyahu returning as Prime Minister and Ehud Olmert setting up shop in the private sector.
However, there is no indication that elections will come so soon as both major parties in the current government coalition, Kadima and Labor, have good reasons to keep this government alive. Olmert has to find a way to rehabilitate his premiership, perhaps through a peace initiative, making people forget his performance leading up to and during last summer’s war. Labor is busy preparing for a leadership primary showdown in May that will most likely determine both who will serve as Defense Minister in the current government and who will lead Labor in the next elections.
The conventional wisdom within Labor circles is that Amir Peretz, by accepting the Defense Ministry and subsequently coming under national criticism for the management of the war, is “damaged goods” and effectively done as Labor leader. He will not go quietly and will no doubt use his incumbent status to bolster his position leading up to the leadership vote. However polls show him in fourth place among Labor voters, trailing three other announced candidates, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, MK Ami Ayalon and MK Ophir Pines-Paz, who recently resigned in protest from the government over the inclusion of Yisrael Beiteinu in the coalition. The other candidate, MK Danny Yatom, trails Peretz and is being dismissed by commentators.
While it too early to properly handicap the race, the respective strategies of the three main challengers are emerging. Barak, defeated by Ariel Sharon in 2001 and at the time unpopular within his party, says that he has learned from his past and promises to exhibit less arrogance and a better sense for collective leadership. He is framing the race as a choice of “who is going to be the Defense Minister at this dangerous time,” rather than who will be Labor’s prime minister candidate in the next general election. Ayalon brings his own impressive military past coupled with a track record as a seeker of peace with the Palestinians. He will promote his newcomer status as well. Pines-Paz is admired within Labor for his principled resignation from the government, a rare occurrence in politics. In addition, he has regularly performed well in previous Knesset primary votes and could surprise some people. If all of the candidates stay in race, it is likely that no candidate will receive the minimum of 40% and a run-off round will take place. Alliances made between the two top candidates and the losers could significantly impact the final result.
Stay tuned as we follow developments throughout the Israeli political map.
