This week saw over 100,000 Israelis gather in protest in Rabin Square in Tel Aviv calling for the resignations of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz. This drama followed from last week’s publication of the highly critical Winograd Committee Report on the Israel government’s conduct during the early phases of the Lebanon war. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni publicly called on Olmert to resign, as have some of the leading Labor doves, including Knesset Member and former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon, who is in a dead heat with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak to become the next leader of the Labor party following the primary on May 28. Barak, once an ally of Olmert’s, also called for him to step down, making Olmert’s departure look increasingly likely, according to members of his own Kadima party.
Foreign Minister Livni left for Egypt to meet with her Egyptian and Jordanian counterparts to discuss the Arab League peace initiative. “Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev…said: “Moderate Arab leaders, of course they can’t replace the Palestinians as partners in peace, but they can provide an atmosphere that is conducive to moderation.” (Ha’aretz, 5/7/07)
To add to the burst of peace diplomacy, Livni was reportedly preparing for the possibility of renewed Israeli peace talks with Syria. An Israeli Foreign Ministry source told Ha’aretz, “’If the prime minister decides that he wants to hear it, we have a prepared plan – from the operational aspect as well.’ The project has included a series of discussions between Livni and senior ministry staffers with the goal of mapping Israel’s vital interests in any such talks. The participating staffers are the same ones who formulated Israel’s diplomatic exit strategy for the Second Lebanon War.”
“Livni began the project shortly after the war ended last August, but it has intensified in recent months, due to the combination of Syria’s public calls for negotiations and intelligence information indicating that Damascus is preparing for a possible war.”
“According to the Foreign Ministry sources, Livni upgraded the Syrian issue immediately after the war, and did so again about two months ago. ‘The foreign minister understood that she had to study the Syrian issue in-depth,’ explained one of the sources.
Livni asked the ministry’s Political Research Center to prepare a detailed intelligence survey of Syria’s demands, which she has since received.”
“She also asked ministry officials for a detailed map of the risks and opportunities entailed in talks with Syria. One of the key assessments she received was that Syria is not yet militarily ready for war with Israel and that its desire for negotiations is genuine.” (Ha’aretz, 5/07/2007, “Livni and aides prepping for possibility of renewed Syria talks”)
In another telling sign of thaw with Syria, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice met this week with the Syrian foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, at an international conference on Iraq held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Observers noted that “It was the first high-level meeting between the two countries since President Bush recalled his ambassador from Damascus in February 2005 after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister.” Readers will recall that President Bush spared no criticism of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for leading a congressional delegation to Damascus and holding talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “President Bush denounced the visit, calling it ‘counterproductive’ and saying it sent mixed signals to a government that his administration has been trying to isolate.” (Washington Post, May 3, 2007)
The Washington Post also reported that “In Baghdad, the chief U.S. military spokesman, Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, told reporters that Syria has tightened its border in recent weeks. ‘There has been some movement by the Syrians,’ he said. ‘There has been a reduction in the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq” for more than a month.’
And Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who had agreed to meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas bi-weekly to talk about day-to-day issues (rather than to conduct substantive political negotiations), denied that he was conducting secret talks with Abbas–a sure sign that they were indeed taking place. Meanwhile, the political turmoil in the Israeli government impelled Condi Rice to postpone a trip to Israel and the Palestinian Authority during which she had “hoped to secure consent from Olmert and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to a U.S. document detailing performance benchmarks for both sides.”
Syria expert Prof. Joshua Landis reveals in his Syria Comment blog that “Iran has thoroughly penetrated the new Iraqi state that the US is building.” (“Rice and Moalem Meet: Has Syria Won?”) He further reports that “very troubling documents have surfaced recently that demonstrate that Iraq’s Prime Minister Maliki is helping Iran infiltrate the two leading Shiite militias of Muqtada al-Sadr, America’s enemy in Iraq, and of Hakim’s Badr forces, which is backed by the US.”
“Saudi Arabia is upset by Iran’s internal takeover of the Iraqi security forces, which has been done under American noses. Not only has Maliki been unable to stop this, but increasingly, it seems he is supporting it. Iran’s takeover is documented in this report by Memri. Iraqi secret memos written by Maliki to Sadr warn the Shiite militia leader to hide his lieutenants during the surge lest Washington kill them.”
As the US failure in Iraq deepens, the Bush Administration may be increasingly likely to at long last follow the recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. The ISG had urged the Administration to engage both Syria and Iran, Iraq’s neighbors, in negotiations to find a political solution for ending Iraqi sectarian violence and insurgency, and to address the broader issues of regional Middle East peace and security, including the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Are both Israel and the US heading for a new round of peace diplomacy? Is Iran next—not for war, but for the opening of a dialogue with the U.S.?
